Tuck News and Events - Professor Predicts Olympic Medal Totals

Tuck Professor Predicts Olympic Medal Totals

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE—July 26, 2004

CONTACT: Kim Keating-603-646-2733

HANOVER, N.H.—The opening ceremonies of the 2004 Athens Olympics have not yet started, but Professor Andrew Bernard already knows which countries will win. He says the U.S. will leave with 93 medals, 37 of them gold.

Bernard, professor of international economics at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, along with co-author Meghan Busse, a visiting assistant professor of economics at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley, used a combination of economics, statistics, and history to forecast overall medal and gold medal totals for 34 countries. Their formula has a proven track record from the 2000 Sydney Olympics, where it exactly matched the U.S. overall medal total of 97 and the U.S. gold medal count of 39-an overall accuracy of 96 percent.

"Though the United States will once again be the winner this year, it will see a third straight decline in the total number of medals its athletes take home," says Bernard. "This is because Olympic riches will be more widely distributed than ever before as the number of medals going to the top countries continues to decline."

Rather than merely forecasting the finishing order of countries, Bernard and Busse have made precise medal count predictions. The United States is forecast to win 93 medals, followed by Russia (83), China (57), Germany (55), and Australia (54). The same five countries are expected to win the gold medal race with a slight change in ordering: U.S. (37), Russia (29), China (27), Australia (14), and Germany (13).

"When you get right down to it, the national success at the Olympics is as much about economics as about individual athletic prowess," says Bernard. The study explains that over the last 40 years, national Olympic medal totals have been driven by four distinct factors: population, per capita income, past performance, and a host effect.

The professors' analysis shows that countries such as the U.S. and Germany win large numbers of medals because they have both large populations and high per capita income (Gross Domestic Product per capita).

"The larger a country's population, the more likely one of its citizens will have the extraordinary natural ability that is necessary to become an Olympic champion," Bernard explains. "Income per capita is another key indicator because wealthier countries are more likely to have individuals and organizations with the resources required to train Olympic medal contenders."

The host effect is an important determinant of medal counts. Bernard and Busse predict that Greece will win 27 medals, more than doubling its haul of 13 medals in the 2000 games. Using the home court to its advantage in Sydney, Australia was able to greatly increase its overall medal total from 41 in 1996 to 58 in 2000. The good news for Australia is that this past Olympic achievement is likely to carry over to this summer's games in Athens, where the Bernard and Busse predict the country will win 54 medals.

Past performance is another powerful, yet not perfect, predictor of Olympic success. Countries with above average performances in Sydney are likely to continue to take home medals in the Athens games. This bodes well for Australia, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom, all of whom did well in the Sydney Games.

Founded in 1900, Tuck is the first graduate school of management and consistently ranks among the top business schools worldwide. Information about the Tuck School is available at www.tuck.dartmouth.edu.